文章Writing
文章Essays
关于文明、人工智能与市场的长文。
Long-form essays on civilization, artificial intelligence and markets. Most are in Chinese, several with English versions.
文明与历史Civilization and history人工智能Artificial intelligence市场、经济与周期Markets, economy and cycles
文明与历史Civilization and history
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2025年2025
农耕文明的自我囚禁：为什么东方在西方面前不堪一击The Self-Imprisonment of Agrarian Civilization
1927年，一个女孩被父兄杀死，全村欢呼“大义灭亲”。这个故事揭示东方文明在近代溃败的深层原因。In 1927 a girl was killed by her own father and brother, and the village cheered. Her story reveals why the East collapsed before the West.
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2025年2025
三大战役：东方文明的涅槃与人类命运的转折The Three Great Campaigns
1950年，西方科学文明已主宰世界五百年，一支衣衫褴褛的军队跨过冰封的鸭绿江。By 1950 the scientific West had dominated the world for five centuries. Then a ragged army crossed the frozen Yalu.
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2025年2025
第四大战役：文化大革命的阶级革命本质The Fourth Great Campaign: The Cultural Revolution
革命胜利的欢呼尚未平息，一个叫“新阶级”的幽灵已在新政权的走廊里游荡。Before the cheering of 1949 had died down, a ghost called the “new class” was already walking the corridors of power.
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2025年2025
文明周期的罗盘：从三元九运看东西方千年变局The Compass of Civilization Cycles
站在2024年九运离火的起点，重看中国1864–2043年的一百八十年。From the start of the Ninth Period in 2024, a look back across China's 180 years from 1864 to 2043.
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2025年2025
数字时代的巴别塔：语言、文明与2N理论The Tower of Babel in the Digital Age
所有语言最终都被编码为0和1——这是《易经》三千年前就揭示的二元结构。Every language is finally encoded as 0 and 1 — the binary structure the I Ching described three thousand years ago.
人工智能Artificial intelligence
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2025年2025
人工智能：人类“第二次进化”真正开始了Artificial Intelligence: Humanity's Second Evolution Has Begun
工业革命延伸了四肢，AI正在延伸大脑。The Industrial Revolution extended our limbs. AI is extending our minds.
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2025年2025
Scaling Law 时代落幕：Ilya Sutskever 的 AI 下半场宣言The End of the Scaling Law Era
说“Scaling Law 已经结束”的，正是亲手定义这条定律的人。“Scaling is over” — said by the man who defined the law.
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2025年2025
黄仁勋GTC演讲：AI新纪元与新工业革命的蓝图Jensen Huang at GTC: Blueprint for a New Industrial Revolution
下一轮工业革命的“电厂和工厂”：AI工厂加上懂物理世界的机器人。The power plants of the next industrial revolution: AI factories and robots that understand the physical world.
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2025年2025
AI炒股给我们的启示Lessons from AI Stock Trading
几个大模型拿真钱同场交易，结果说明了什么。What happened when large language models traded real money side by side.
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2025年2025
硅谷预言：2027年开启15年“地狱模式”？Silicon Valley Prophecy: Fifteen Years of “Hell Mode” from 2027?
一个来自硅谷的预言，以及应该如何看待它。A prophecy from Silicon Valley, and how to read it.
市场、经济与周期Markets, economy and cycles
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2025年2025
债务的终局之战：38万亿美债与300%宏观杠杆率The Final Battle of Debt
真正的核弹不在发射井里，而在两大经济体的资产负债表上。The real bomb is not in a missile silo but on the balance sheets of the two largest economies.
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2025年2025
精確交易：為什麼你「知道卻做不到」？Precise Trading: Why You Know but Can't Do
交易執行困難的根源不是心理，而是認知模糊。Execution fails not because of psychology but because of ambiguity.
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2025年2025
九紫火運十二生肖運勢全書（2024–2034）The Twelve Signs in the Period 9 Fire Era (2024–2034)
把三元九運與《易經》的週期觀，轉化為今天可以理解的指南。The cycle theory of San Yuan Jiu Yun and the I Ching, turned into a guide for today.